#uncertainty
Every node in the atlas carrying this tag.
- 002When Uncertainty Pays YouConvexity
Capped loss and open upside describe practical asymmetry; convexity is the separate test that the payoff stays below its chords.
- 003The Most Valuable Thing an AI Can Say Is "I Don't Know"The Invisible Frontier
A tested abstention policy can mark where reliable answering ends and judgment returns to the operator.
- 004The AI Wins You Can Measure Are Table StakesSelection
Measure the gross gain. Then ask what remains after rivals acquire the same capability.
- 106Knightian Uncertainty: When No Defensible Reference Class Supports the OddsThe Lexicon
Knightian uncertainty names cases where risk cannot be priced from a reliable reference class.
- 112Convexity: When Volatility Starts Paying YouThe Lexicon
A function is convex when every chord lies on or above its curve, equivalently when its slope does not decrease; capped loss with open upside is one example.
- 113The Jagged Frontier: The Edge You Can't See Until You're Past ItThe Lexicon
A jagged frontier is the uneven edge of model capability: tasks that look equally hard to a person can sit on opposite sides.
- 114Out of Distribution: A Map of Where the Data LivedThe Lexicon
Out of distribution is a relative label: a case falls outside a specified reference distribution.
- 117Prediction vs Decision: The Machine Forecasts, You JudgeThe Lexicon
Prediction is a claim about what may happen; decision is the accountable choice about what to do.
- 119Rare for You, Common for the CorpusThe Lexicon
Rare-for-you means a case with no local routine but many documented precedents in the corpus.